Will Disney still release its live-action reimagining of Mulan in theaters in July as it’s long claimed it would? Obviously, any theatrical release is entirely dependent on when cinemas reopen following worldwide COVID-19 closures but a Wall Street analyst claims Disney may ultimately opt to “kill” Mulan’s theatrical release in favor of a digital debut. And that such a move may ultimately be better for Disney’s business than pushing it out to theaters that cannot run at full capacity.
Analyst Michael Nathanson of the firm MoffettNathanson said on an investors’ conference call that if Mulan can gross even half of the usual $1 billion Disney’s pre-pandemic spate of blockbusters usually made “it will be a freakin’ home run.”
Nathan, who Deadline describes as usually bullish on Disney’s business, recently downgraded the company’s shares in light of how hard hit and widespread the damage inflicted on Disney has been due to COVID-19 closures.
[poilib element=”quoteBox” parameters=”excerpt=%22I%20don%E2%80%99t%20think%20it%E2%80%99s%20a%20given%20that%20Mulan%E2%80%98s%20going%20to%20be%20released%20as%20we%20think.%22″]As Deadline reports: “Exhibitors and Disney alike have held firm that they are moving forward with the July plan, but Nathanson isn’t sure the studio will follow through. Beyond the viability of theaters, he said, the company would have to ‘un-furlough a lot of their employees’ in distribution and marketing. ‘I don’t think it’s a given that Mulan‘s going to be released as we think.’”
As with Tenet, Hollywood’s other major July release, Mulan’s theatrical run depends on 80% of cinemas worldwide being open within the next three weeks, including major American markets like New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. (And, remember, theaters will still be required to practice social distancing so attendance will be limited.) If theaters in such markets still remain closed, it’s likely Disney will have to push Mulan’s release date again. Or, as analyst Nathanson suspects, Disney will opt to release Mulan digitally instead.
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Pointing to the premium video-on-demand success of Universal’s Trolls World Tour, Nathanson believes Mulan shifting to PVOD and then early Disney+ debut could actually be more beneficial to Disney than may be immediately apparent. Disney has pushed Artemis Fowl to a Disney+ release instead, while studio brass has left the door open to pushing smaller movies to digital instead of theatrical.
He believes a Mulan digital release could serve as “a bit of a boost” to Disney+ and help Disney’s stock in the long run: “If they do kill Mulan, that could help the narrative. In a perverse way, that could be better for Disney stock in the long run than having Mulan go to theaters.” (It should be noted that Mulan was tracking to be the biggest box office hit of 2020, domestically, before the pandemic struck the U.S.)
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This analysis doesn’t appear to account for what sort of backlash Disney could face from theatrical exhibitors should it pull such a high-profile movie as Mulan and release it on digital instead. AMC Theaters is at war with Universal over the studio’s decision to drop theatrical releases for Trolls World Tour and The King of Staten Island in favor of VOD, and Warner Bros. has been careful to reiterate that Tenet will be a theatrical release after shifting Scoob! to digital.
Would you be more willing to watch Mulan in theaters or on digital? Let us know in the comments!
Source: IGN.com Will Disney 'Kill' Mulan's Theatrical Release in Favor of Digital?